- The Chinese military has flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ almost every day since 2020.
- Crossing the center line skyrocketed and practically obliterated it completely.
- Invasions, as well as large-scale military exercises, weaken Taiwan’s military.
Chinese warplanes push into Taiwan and have all but eliminated an important dividing line with almost daily raids creating a dangerous new normal.
As of 2020, Taiwan has issued regular, almost daily updates on Chinese military aircraft incursions into the Air Defense Identification Zone. It also documents China’s continued efforts to degrade the middle line of the Taiwan Strait established in 1955.
Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, Non-Resident Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, Co-Founder PLATracker organizations, watched China’s increasingly bold behavior. A review of data from Taiwan revealed that ADIZ invasions over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the unofficial dividing line that was established for deconfliction.
Cross-strait relations are strained as China continues its pressure and intimidation tactics against Taiwan. SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images
Chinese military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and its crossing of the central line in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with ADIZ incursions climbing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 today.
A nation’s ADIZ extends well beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, it sends combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.
In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, and this number nearly doubled in 2022. In 2023, 1,703 aircraft were recorded. And 2024 looks set to have a record number, with more than 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They are also no longer limited to the ADIZ corner.
Crossing the center line has become increasingly frequent since then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan in August 2022, and China has consistently wiped it out completely. In a recent exercise around Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes flew over it, a one-day high. A few years ago, Taiwan could see hundreds of border crossings, but within months.
“We became desensitized to the high number of military aircraft flying across the middle line of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago that was unheard of. Now it’s just another Thursday.”
Taiwan observes almost daily raids by the People’s Liberation Air Force into its ADIZ. Taiwan Military Press Agency/Anadolu via Getty Images
China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military to achieve reunification, raising concerns in Taipei, the US and other Western countries that China could one day enact blockade or total invasion Taiwan to force it to submit to Beijing’s authority.
Beijing’s tactics include intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and massive military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.
Recently, in two joint exercises “Joint Sword 2024-A” and “Joint Sword 2024-B”, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army effectively encircled Taiwan and simulated how it could blockade key ports and areas, attack sea and land targets, and take territory.
During the “Joint Sword 2024-B” event, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense stated that a a record number of Chinese warplanesover 150, flew into his ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, said China’s goal was to “undermine stability and the status quo.”
Chinese invasions tire Taiwanese forces
The almost daily ADIZ raids are not only changing the status quo in the area; they are also draining the Taiwanese military.
In October 2020, then-Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said that Taiwan’s air force and navy had spent nearly $1 billion to track Chinese fighter jets. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its responses to ADIZ violations to reserve resources, but still pays taxes.
China’s constant incursions force Taiwan to burn spare parts, fuel, resources and personnel. NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images
In this difficult situation, “the continued degradation of Taiwan’s military assets and the depletion of Taiwan’s military personnel is a concern,” Shattuck said, explaining that China is “taking advantage” of Taiwan’s military capabilities “by flooding the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what it deserves.” response.”
That degradation could ultimately weaken Taiwan’s military if one of China’s major exercises suddenly becomes a real deal, and with U.S. aid to Taiwan “long overdue and overdue,” Shattuck said, it could undermine Taiwan’s readiness -wan.
“The middle line of the Taiwan Strait — the de facto border that created some semblance of stability across the strait — no longer exists,” and “Taiwan cannot push back against these PRC incursions on all fronts,” Lewis and Shattuck recently wrote.
This is a fight of attrition, they said, arguing that while China’s military activities around Taiwan “have normalized and are part of the ever-deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and Washington still hold the cards.
Taiwan has spent years navigating a difficult relationship with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has branded Lai a “separatist”.
The middle line, though unofficial, was respected and ignored by China. AFP/AFP via Getty Images
During his inaugural address, Lai promised to uphold Taiwan’s democracy as a global beacon and called on China to stop intimidating Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations and was shortly followed by “Joint Sword 2024-A”. During his national holiday speech earlier this month, Lai toned down the rhetoric and showed restraint in calls for peace and understanding.
“Lai’s national holiday speech suggests that Taipei is trying to find ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining its claims of Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty,” Crisis Group senior China analyst Amanda Hsiao told BI. But China’s response, “Joint Sword 2024-B,” was intense and sent a message.
No matter what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said, China does not trust him.
“It doesn’t matter what kind of olive branches the DPP president can extend because Beijing won’t accept them,” he said, explaining that “Beijing is trying to accelerate its sovereign territory of Taiwan.” This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.
The US and its allies and partners face challenges in continuing to support Taiwan in managing relations with Beijing. JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images
As the Chinese military continues its incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, Washington and its allies “must remain vigilant in protesting these activities to make it clear that military pressure on Taiwan is unacceptable,” Shattuck said.
“It is unrealistic to say that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC’s air and naval incursions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but possibilities do exist. “Washington,” they said, “should work to increase Taiwan’s ability to monitor the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to push back as needed.”